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ciroccojLe sigh:
Polls say Canada Conservatives set for minority win
TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada's Conservatives are heading for victory in Monday's federal election after 12 years out of power, but will not win a majority of seats in Parliament, according to opinion polls published on Saturday.
The surveys, which could be among the last before Canadians go to vote, point to an unstable Conservative government that will need support from other parties to stay in power.
Pollsters said voters were disillusioned with Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin after 18 months of a minority Liberal government, but not confident enough of the Conservatives to give them unconditional support.
"The electorate have collectively decided that we gave Paul Martin the keys to the car with some limitations in 2004. We were not satisfied with that performance," said Frank Graves, whose EKOS poll of 2,313 voters put the Conservatives at 37.1 percent voter support and the Liberals at 26.9 percent.
"Now we are going to try the same thing with (Conservative leader) Stephen Harper."
A second survey, by Ipsos-Reid and published in the National Post newspaper, said 38 percent of voters planned to support the Conservatives, and 26 percent would vote Liberal. That compares with 37 percent for the Conservatives and 29 percent for the Liberals a week earlier.
"Harper is going to win on Monday, there's no question about that," pollster Darrell Bricker told the paper.
But Bricker dismissed the idea of a Conservative majority. "They are pretty well at the top of their cycle," he said.
A Strategic Counsel poll published in the Globe and Mail said 38 percent of Canadians would vote Conservative and 28 percent would vote Liberal.
40 PERCENT = MAJORITY?
Pollsters usually say that a party needs about 40 percent of the votes to have a realistic shot of winning a majority of Parliament's 308 seats, coupled with a gap of at least 10 points between the leading party and the one running second.
The Conservatives touched that level in some opinion polls earlier in the campaign, but support slipped after Liberal attack ads that apparently capitalized on voter fears that the party might be too radical, especially on social issues like abortion, which is freely available in Canada.
In one advertisement, Martin says Harper is too close to conservative U.S. President George W. Bush. The ad draws on a Washington Times newspaper article that said Canada could elect the most pro-American leader in the western world.
Harper insists he has no plans for curbs on abortion, although he will allow a free vote on whether to overturn recently passed laws that allow same-sex marriage.
The three surveys put support for the left-leaning New Democratic Party at between 17 percent and 19.5 percent. The party propped up the minority Liberal government, but has little in common with the Conservatives.
The Bloc Quebecois, which campaigns only in French-speaking Quebec, has support of 47 percent of voters in the province in the Strategic Counsel poll, 46 percent in the Ipsos-Reid survey and 50.2 percent according to EKOS, although results for individual provinces have a much wider margin of error than those for the overall polls.
A vote above 50 percent will make it easier for the Bloc, the federal offshoot of the pro-independence Parti Quebecois, to keep alive the separatists' dream of breaking away from Canada.
***
Vidrec:
All-Star, AKA Neville Longbottom. I've got a soft spot for geeks & goofy losers as well as snarky jerks. Also, my boys sang along to it like four times, and I finally had to tell them we couldn't watch it any more today.
***
Today's D & D quote, introducing a new kid to the group: "That's Garry, and that's Luke, and there's our kids - Daniel's got the long hair and Justin's wearing the ballet leotard."
***
Today, Ottawa was a snowglobe. Here's the view out our window (warning: large pictures of snow):
Let it snow,
Let it snow,
Let it snow.
Polls say Canada Conservatives set for minority win
TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada's Conservatives are heading for victory in Monday's federal election after 12 years out of power, but will not win a majority of seats in Parliament, according to opinion polls published on Saturday.
The surveys, which could be among the last before Canadians go to vote, point to an unstable Conservative government that will need support from other parties to stay in power.
Pollsters said voters were disillusioned with Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin after 18 months of a minority Liberal government, but not confident enough of the Conservatives to give them unconditional support.
"The electorate have collectively decided that we gave Paul Martin the keys to the car with some limitations in 2004. We were not satisfied with that performance," said Frank Graves, whose EKOS poll of 2,313 voters put the Conservatives at 37.1 percent voter support and the Liberals at 26.9 percent.
"Now we are going to try the same thing with (Conservative leader) Stephen Harper."
A second survey, by Ipsos-Reid and published in the National Post newspaper, said 38 percent of voters planned to support the Conservatives, and 26 percent would vote Liberal. That compares with 37 percent for the Conservatives and 29 percent for the Liberals a week earlier.
"Harper is going to win on Monday, there's no question about that," pollster Darrell Bricker told the paper.
But Bricker dismissed the idea of a Conservative majority. "They are pretty well at the top of their cycle," he said.
A Strategic Counsel poll published in the Globe and Mail said 38 percent of Canadians would vote Conservative and 28 percent would vote Liberal.
40 PERCENT = MAJORITY?
Pollsters usually say that a party needs about 40 percent of the votes to have a realistic shot of winning a majority of Parliament's 308 seats, coupled with a gap of at least 10 points between the leading party and the one running second.
The Conservatives touched that level in some opinion polls earlier in the campaign, but support slipped after Liberal attack ads that apparently capitalized on voter fears that the party might be too radical, especially on social issues like abortion, which is freely available in Canada.
In one advertisement, Martin says Harper is too close to conservative U.S. President George W. Bush. The ad draws on a Washington Times newspaper article that said Canada could elect the most pro-American leader in the western world.
Harper insists he has no plans for curbs on abortion, although he will allow a free vote on whether to overturn recently passed laws that allow same-sex marriage.
The three surveys put support for the left-leaning New Democratic Party at between 17 percent and 19.5 percent. The party propped up the minority Liberal government, but has little in common with the Conservatives.
The Bloc Quebecois, which campaigns only in French-speaking Quebec, has support of 47 percent of voters in the province in the Strategic Counsel poll, 46 percent in the Ipsos-Reid survey and 50.2 percent according to EKOS, although results for individual provinces have a much wider margin of error than those for the overall polls.
A vote above 50 percent will make it easier for the Bloc, the federal offshoot of the pro-independence Parti Quebecois, to keep alive the separatists' dream of breaking away from Canada.
Vidrec:
All-Star, AKA Neville Longbottom. I've got a soft spot for geeks & goofy losers as well as snarky jerks. Also, my boys sang along to it like four times, and I finally had to tell them we couldn't watch it any more today.
Today's D & D quote, introducing a new kid to the group: "That's Garry, and that's Luke, and there's our kids - Daniel's got the long hair and Justin's wearing the ballet leotard."
Today, Ottawa was a snowglobe. Here's the view out our window (warning: large pictures of snow):
Let it snow,
Let it snow,
Let it snow.
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no subject
Date: 2006-01-22 04:26 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-01-22 05:08 am (UTC)LOL!
no subject
Date: 2006-01-22 05:35 am (UTC)And at least a Conservative minority will topple eventually. (The buzz in East Bumfuck is that Harper will likely give Cheryl Gallant a cabinet post. WTF?)
no subject
Date: 2006-01-22 03:29 pm (UTC)That's a honking lot of snow.
*shivers*
no subject
Date: 2006-01-22 04:27 pm (UTC)Twinkle
no subject
Date: 2006-01-23 01:01 am (UTC)And Heather's so pissed she can't vote ;)